Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for September 6, 2010
/IRBIS, September 6, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI
JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events
and their investment ideas and projections for September 6, 2010.
Analysts of IFH RESMI are paying attention to investors on the
following important events in the markets now:
- Positive statistics of U.S. move up markets. At the end of the
week American statistics has presented a pleasant surprise for
market participants. U.S. Department of Labor disclosed on the
labor market of the country in August. The unemployment rate in
the U.S. up to August increased by 0.1% to 9.6% as analysts had
expected. Number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the
country was reduced by up to August 54 thousand promulgated
statistics proved to be much better than market forecasts.
Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, had expected to reduce
the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the country's 110
thousand according to the report U.S. Department of Labor, a
reduction in the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the
country up to August due to the termination of temporary
employees engaged by the authorities in the spring for census.
While private companies continue to recruit new staff. Since last
December, the number of new jobs in the private sector
increased by 763 thousand, the report says. In addition, the good
news can be considered reducing the number of Americans
looking for work over a long period of time. In August, these
people became less at 323 thousand, the document said. Of the
total number of unemployed about 42% can be attributed to
those who are looking for work for a long time (27 weeks or
more). Against this background of market statistics have shown
positive dynamics and values of major U.S. and European
indices rose on Friday within 1-1.5%. On Monday, U.S. stock
exchanges will be closed to celebrate the Day of workers.
Analysts of IFD "RESMI" suggest the influence of positive macro
to continue in the beginning of the week.
- Banks continue to buy debt instruments of "problem"
countries of the Euro zone. Despite the worsening situation
with the debt crisis in Greece and some other Euro zone
countries this year, banks have continued to resort purchase of
debt instruments of European countries. According to the Bank
for International Settlements, commercial banks have increased
the amount of credit that they have provided governments and
the private sector in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in the
first quarter of 2010 to 4.3 percent, or $ 109 billion infusion of
additional credit from commercial banks, brought the total
amount of the portfolio of debt instruments of four countries at the
disposal of commercial banks, to $ 2.6 trillion. European banks
were more active in the acquisition of sovereign debt securities of
the above four countries, rather than American banks. Probably,
the reason for more active policy of European banks to purchase
debt securities by Euro-zone countries of concern is the fact that
the Euro-zone banks may use these financial instruments as
collateral when borrowing from the European Central Bank (ECB)
at a lower rate. The ECB kept the key refinancing rate at a record
low of 1%. Banks take this opportunity to lay the debt securities
of four countries in the Euro zone the ECB, low-interest, were
able to bring liquidity to a sufficiently high level. Obviously, the
ECB has urged commercial banks to buy bonds of the euro area,
using various preferential arrangements. Germanic and French
commercial banks most have resorted to lending to troubled
countries in the Euro zone. The volume of gross risky loans to
banks in Greece France amounted to $ 111.6 billion; including $
27 billion went to buy sovereign debt securities. The remainder of
the loans went to the lending business, individuals and derivative
contracts. Germanic Greek banks have allocated $ 51 billion, $
23.1 billion of which went to the purchase of government bonds.
In the assets of American banks amount of Greek sovereign debt
bonds amounted to $ 5.4 billion. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe
that with further resolution of debt crises of the euro area, banks
will become more willing to lend to each other, which ultimately
will provide the region's economy with sufficient credit facilities.
Ultimately, this should have positive impact on business activity
in Europe and in the whole world. It is likely that the three-month
interbank lending rate LIBOR will continue its fall against the
announcement of a positive forecast for global growth, delivered
by officials of the Greater Twenties. "
Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in
securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:
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Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI.
Current price price** %***
------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- -----
Kazkommertsbak 388 796 105.2% 385 45.16
Halyk bank 313 409 30.7% 362 48.70
Bank Center Credit 548 1,218 122.3% 899 54.16
ENRC 2,000 On review 2,679 45.87
Kazakhmys 2,849 On review 3,231 56.40
RD KMG 15,900 24,895 56.6% 23,524 35.22
Kazkhtelekom 14,020 33,842 141.4% 33,825 42.90
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Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review)
** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg
*** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines
strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when
RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%.
- Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD
"RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of
2010;
- Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI"
as the most promising in terms of business development financial
institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's
shares up to KZT409 per share;
- Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD
"RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to
the level of 1.230 m.;
- Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for
investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend
buying simple shareholders of the issuer.
- The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration
Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share.
The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer
or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't
take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2010-09-06]