Dollar rate decrease is the temporary phenomena relative to tenge

/IRBIS, Nov 08, 01/ - Almaty bureau of REUTERS informs that consolidation of Kazakhstan tenge relative to dollar of USA is the temporary phenomena and due to current liquidity. The chief of Alfa-bank's dealing department Denis Ryltsev said the following - "There is lack of tenge after the increase of dollar, on days when considerable volumes of US dollars were bought". Weighted average rate of tenge increased up to KZT148.47 from KZT148.62 per dollar of USA, in the morning session of Kazakhstan stock exchange. Volume of trade rose up to $8.875 mln from $2,765 mln on Wednesday. According to dealers, there is no economic reason for the considerable firming of tenge. Ivan Novikov - the dealer of bank Kaspiyskiy said - "export earning which has been exceeding over volumes of customers' demand for a long time, characterizes market in the global aspect" On Monday rate of tenge decreased rapidly down to KZT148.72 per dollar, however then the smooth growth came, and on Thursday rate of tenge totaled KZT148.47 per dollar. Dealers think that stock exchange fluctuation was due to activity of some participants on the one hand, and outbid of dollar in previous days, on the other hand. Tymur Gabasov - the dealer for City bank said the following "Two or three big players constantly raise great number of tenge, and rates on tenge are relatively high in comparison with those rates, which should be in fact". Overnight rates for tenge on interbank market varies within 4-9%, on Thursday, whereas overnight rates for dollar fluctuate at 3.5-4.0%. Dealers say that rates on tenge were enough stable within a month, being at 4.5-6.0% and current growth of rates is estimated by dealers as the temporary one. Banks expect some firming of dollar in close future and prefer to participate in the auction on the initial floating of governmental bonds, passively. On Nov 6 and 7 two auctions on floating National bank notes 77 and MEOKAM4 (STL) of Ministry of finance, all the above were canceled. Participants say that government securities are not so attractive now days due to low yield, which is 5.5-6.0% APR for the short term securities, and as for long term - 8.0-8.3% APR. Gabasov said - "by the end of this year, there is no interest on the market to buy long instruments under such low yield". According to the forecast of market's participants on Friday, the stock exchange rate for dollar will stay at KZT148.4-148.5. However next week they expect the decrease of the official exchange rate of tenge by National bank. The decrease from KZT148.3 this week, down to KZT148.40 per dollar. The dealer, operating for one of banks of Kazakhstan said-"last two weeks National bank were conducting the policy of devaluation. We expect the official tenge exchange rate at KZT148.4".