Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for May 4, 2010
/IRBIS, May 4, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for May 4, 2010.
Analysts of IFH RESMI are paying attention to investors on the following important events in the markets now:
- JSC Kazakhtelecom redeems its ordinary and preferred shares. According to data released by JSC Kazakhtelecom, as well as information of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, JSC Kazakhtelecom in the fourth quarter of 2009, bought nearly 33 thousand of its common shares. Moreover, the company continued to repurchase common shares in the first quarter of 2010. Volume redeemed during the first 3 months of 2010 amounted to 4,799 common shares. Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2009, the company had added 810,459 preferred shares. Later, in the first quarter of 2010 the company bought back preferred shares, the volume of which amounted to 846,518 units. It is recalled that another company, part of the JSC "FNB" SamrukKazyna ", JSC" KMG EP "followed the same practice earlier. Analysts IFD" RESMI "positive view of redemption as ordinary and preference shares of JSC Kazakhtelecom. IFD "RESMI" believes that share repurchases will increase earnings per share (EPS). Moreover, the average price per ordinary share, the well-established over the past few months, looks quite attractive for redemption. In turn, the redemption of preferred shares will allow the company to significantly reduce expenditure on payment of dividends. Despite the strong financial condition and positive operating performance, shares of JSC Kazakhtelecom traded well below the industry average. That being said, it is recommended to invest in shares of JSC Kazakhtelecom. According to the forecast IFD "RESMI", by end- 2010 price per ordinary share will be KZT30-33 thousands.
- Inflation slows the growth. Yesterday, the Statistics Agency published figures of inflation which amounted to 0.7%in Kazakhstan in April 2010. The largest contribution to growth and inflation has put food prices, which rose by 1%. Prices as for industrial goods and paid services increased by 0.4%. In annual terms (April 2010 to April 2009) the inflation rate was 7.1%, while food prices grew by 5.3%, non - on 6.3%, paid services - 10.2%. As analyst IFD "RESMI", the rate of inflation in the short term will decrease. Given the weak business activity, low levels of lending and, consequently, a slight increase in the real economy to be affected by a slowdown in inflation. Despite the increase in inflation since the beginning of the year (January, inflation amounted to - 7.3% in February - 7.4% in March, 7.2%), analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that by the end of the first half will be observed decline in inflation since the second half of 2010 inflation rate will rise and the end of the year pick up the pace of credit growth at the expense of the economy and the seasonal factor.
- Rusagro announced IPO price range from $13.5 to $17.0 per share. One of the largest Russian agro-holdings Rusagro intends to hold IPO on Russian exchanges RTS and MICEX. Rusagro going to offer investors 18.2 million shares owned by its shareholders - Matchzone Holdings Limited, which intends to buy a portion of the proceeds of 11.4 million shares of additional issue. Last week, Rusagro announced IPO price range from $13.5 to $17.0 per share. After placing the company's market capitalization could reach $1.23 - $1.55 billion Number of shares in free float will amount to approximately 20%. It is expected that the price of accommodation is definitely on May 13, and on the same day to begin bidding. The organizers of the placement are Alfa Bank, Credit Suisse, Renaissance Capital and Sberbank. During placement, the company intends to raise $250 - $300 million in proceeds will be used for further modernization and expansion of production capacity. Sugar business is the key to Rusagro. The company is among the three largest sugar producers in Russia (along with the companies' Prodimex and Razguliay) and owns seven sugar factories in the Belgorod and Tambov regions. The structure of the group is also Belgorod bacon", which is implementing a project in pig. As of March 31, 2010, the major shareholders are - Mr. Vadim Moshkovich Senator, which owns 84.7% of shares, the company Matchezone Holdings Limited - 14.3%, Mrs. Natalia Bykovskaya - 1% of the shares.
Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:
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Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI,
Current price price** %***
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Kazkommertsbak 610 796 30.5% 624 43.08
Halyk bank 355 409 15.2% 407 44.11
Bank Center Credit 652 1,218 86.8% 1,070 33.35
ENRC 2,800 On review 2,931 61.91
Kazakhmys 3,220 On review 3,695 43.94
RD KMG 22,000 24,895 13.2% 25,326 51.40
Kazkhtelekom 15,600 33,842 116.9% 18,344 19.32
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Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review)
** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg
*** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines
strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when
RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%.
- Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010;
- Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share;
- Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1,230 m.;
- Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer.
- The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24,895 per share.
The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2010-05-04]