/Moody's Investors Service, Лондон, 05.06.13, перевод и заголовок KASE/ –
Прогноз для казахстанской банковской системы остается негативным, не
меняясь с октября 2008 г., сообщает Moody's Investors Service в новом
отчете, опубликованном сегодня. Прогноз отражает точку зрения рейтингового
агентства на банковскую систему, обремененную проблемными займами,
недостаточными резервами для покрытия убытков по займам, низкими
показателями доходности и достаточности капитала, ограниченным ростом
кредитования.
Ниже приводится оригинальный текст сообщения Moody's на английском
языке.
London, 05 June 2013 – The outlook for Kazakhstan's banking system remains
negative, unchanged since October 2008, says Moody's Investors Service in
a new report published today. The outlook reflects the rating agency's view
of the banking system's large overhang of problem loans, insufficient
loan-loss reserves, its poor profitability and capital adequacy and limited
credit growth.
The new report, entitled "Banking System Outlook: Kazakhstan", is now
available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report
via the link provided at the end of this press release.
Although the operating environment in Kazakhstan is relatively stable,
Kazakh banks derive little benefit from the growing economy, as the
better-performing industries (large state-owned energy and mining companies)
do not borrow from domestic banks. As a result, Moody's expects modest
credit growth of 5% (in real terms) in 2013, pressured by limited credit
demand from the non-commodities companies.
Weak asset quality and capital adequacy will remain a key credit challenge
for the banking system over the outlook period. Moody's expects problem
loans to decline only marginally from its estimate of 40% of gross loans
as of year-end 2012. The rating agency's scenario analysis indicates that
banks need to create additional loan-loss provisions equal to about 6% of
gross loans to fully cover expected losses, which could push the system's
total capital adequacy ratio down to 12.5% (modestly above the 12%
regulatory minimum) in the next 12-18 months, from 14.9% at year-end 2012.
Moody's expects the system-average return on average assets (RoAA) to remain
weak, in the 0.5%-1% range over the outlook period, pressured by low earnings
and significant loan loss provisions.
Banks have improved their funding and liquidity structures, supported by
increasing customer funding, limited lending growth and reduced market
borrowings. However, Moody's note that some large banks are highly
dependent on large corporate deposits (many of which are from
state-controlled entities), which represents an important refinancing risk.
Moody's sees a very low probability that the government would extend
support to banks' bond holders, as evidenced by the bail-ins of a few large
failed banks in the past several years. However, depositors of large banks
are still likely to receive moderate systemic support, which results in bank
deposit ratings exceeding those institutions' senior unsecured debt ratings.
Subscribers can access this report via this link:
http://www.moodys.com/research/Banking-System-Outlook-Kazakhstan--PBC_154245
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[2013-06-05]