Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for July 23, 2010
/IRBIS, July 23, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for July 23, 2010.
Analysts of IFH RESMI are paying attention to investors on the following important events in the markets now:
- The two companies, Diamond and Ensco are part of the five biggest companies involved in drilling and drilling equipment sales are getting ready to buy up drilling equipment, which will probably sell because of the moratorium on oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Both companies expect that because of the moratorium, and the incident in the Gulf of Mexico, oil companies interested in exploration and development of deepwater and offshore oil fields will be more sensitive to oil rigs, and will focus on buying more sophisticated equipment and drilling platforms that can they offer more and larger companies. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" expect that the cost oil companies will grow, due to higher spending on more sophisticated and expensive drilling platforms.
- Kazakhstan will not issue Eurobonds this year. According to the press service of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) of Kazakhstan, at a meeting of the Economic Policy of the Government of 03 July this year, it was decided to inappropriate release of sovereign bonds of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2010. This year, Kazakhstan needs to attract KZT1,064.4 billion in order to finance the budget deficit, as well as the repayment term GS treatment which expires this year. The main instrument for borrowing is domestic government securities, which amount to about 60% of necessary funds. In addition, Kazakhstan has attracted a loan of $ 1 billion from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank). However, remains an open question how the rest will be financed by KZT274.4 billion. Originally scheduled for release Eurobonds on $ 500-700 million in connection with the fact that the MP of Kazakhstan gave up the idea of placing Eurobonds, analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that the government expects to attract another loan. In addition, the decrease in demand for government securities MF RK. Yesterday, the second consecutive day, there was no GS trade in the secondary market. Moreover, since yesterday, placing medium T-bills (MEOKAM-48 Release 44) was held to demand 81%. Declared a volume of KZT13 billion, however, managed to add the amount of KZT10.6 billion. According to analysts of IFD "RESMI", Eurobonds could serve as a benchmark for debt securities of the corporate sector and give impetus to reduce their profitability. Consequently, funding for Kazakh corporate sector would be cheaper.
Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:
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Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI.
Current price price** %***
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Kazkommertsbak 356 796 123.6% 490 30.70
Halyk bank 313 409 30.7% 394 52.87
Bank Center Credit 520 1,218 134.2% 1,023 37.33
ENRC 2,000 On review 2,771 43.46
Kazakhmys 2,450 On review 3,145 48.88
RD KMG 16,900 24,895 47.3% 24,583 39.79
Kazkhtelekom 14,800 33,842 128.7% 20,436 56.70
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Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review)
** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg
*** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines
strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when
RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%.
- Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010;
- Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share;
- Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.;
- Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer.
- The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share.
The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2010-07-23]