Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for October 11, 2011
/IRBIS, October 11, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for October 11, 2011.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect positive opening of trades on positive external background. Further, during the day, according to analysts, dynamics on the local market will remain positive, and KASE index will probably end the day with increase.
Analysts of JCS "BCC Invest" note the following significant events on Kazakhstani market today: - JSC "Exploration Production "KazMunaiGas" in accordance with the Board of Directors on September 15, 2011 to announce the launch of a repurchase program of its shares from October 11, 2011 The process of share repurchases will take place in accordance with the requirements of stock exchanges and end up December 31, 2012 In accordance with this program, the Company intends to acquire common shares on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) and global Depository Receipts (GDRs) listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), worth up to $ 300 million USA. shares and GDRs will be acquired at the prevailing market price at the time of purchase. The company will announce the results of daily transactions of the previous day before the start of trading on the LSE. According to the JSC "BCC Invest", the message is positive for stock prices and depositary receipts of KMG EP, as it represents signals of management's confidence in the prospects for the future. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "buy" on shares and depositary receipts of KMG EP with target price of 15,900 tenge per share and $ 18.30 per GDR
- JSC "Exploration Production "KazMunaiGas", including stake in the LLP "JV "Kazgermunai" (KGM), "Karazhanbasmunai" (KZM), "PetroKazakhstan" (PK) for the nine months of 2011 extracted 9,207 tons of oil (250 thousand bpd), up 738 thousand tons, or 7% less than in the corresponding period in 2010 Production Branch "Ozenmunaygaz" ( OMG) has extracted 3,789 tons (102 thousand bpd), up 685 thousand tons less than in the corresponding period last year. "Embamunaygaz" (EMG) has extracted 2103 tons (57 thousand barrels per day), which is 21 million tons more than the same period last year, making total production of OMG and EMG in the first nine months of 2011 amount to 5,891 tons (159 thousand bpd), up 664 thousand tons or 10% less than during the same period in 2010 when it results in the production period had a negative impact illegal protest, held in OMG in May-August 2011, as well as outages and restrictions on the fields of electricity in January- April this year due to adverse weather conditions. The share of KMG EP's production company KGM, KZM and PK for the nine months of 2011 amounted to 3,315 million tonnes (91 thousand barrels per day), which is 74 thousand tons, or 2% less compared to the same period last year in accordance with the plan for data mining joint ventures. From January 2011 to the present backlog of consolidated plan production is over 870 thousand tons due to illegal protests in the OMG, outages and restrictions on electricity Uzen, Karazhanbasmunai and Kumkol, partly offset by over-fulfillment of targets for other productive assets company. As previously reported, as a result of actions taken by HMG trend growth in production levels. Thus, from mid-August and late September 2011 daily production increased by 34%: from 10.3 to 13.8 tons per day. It is currently expected that the deviation from the consolidated plan for the year reached 1150 thousand tons, or 8.4% of total consolidated volume of KMG EP's production (including shares in jointly controlled entities where it is expected some over-fulfillment of the plan). The company had previously estimated the expected deviation at 800 tons. Review of assessment is made based on the actual date of completion of the strike (early September), the actual results of mining in September, an updated forecast of production joint ventures, as well as taking into account the implementation of measures to restore the level of daily production. This assessment is lagging behind the plan assumes an uninterrupted supply of electricity and deposits timely implementation of measures to restore production. According to the JSC "BCC Invest", the message is neutral for the stock price and depository receipts of KMG EP as well as reduced production levels in the specified range meets the expectations of market participants. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" support the recommendation to "buy" on shares and depositary receipts of KMG EP with target price of 15,900 tenge per share and $ 18.30 per GDR
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments on international markets today:
- In the next three days Russia is expected to publish data on the fiscal balance since the beginning of the year.
- In the UK at 14:30 (AST) to be published data on industrial production and the index of housing prices from DCLG, and at 20:00 (AST) - assessment of GDP growth from NIESR.
- in U.S. at 17:30 (AST) will be published index of optimism from small business NFIB, at 20:00 (AST) - an index of economic optimism of the IBD / TIPP, as well as during the week, is expected to publish a report on the budget of the United States.
- today Infosys Ltd, Taiwan Mobile Co Ltd, Mechel, Kinetic Concepts Inc, and others will be reporting. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market:
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Closing Target Potential,
Issuer Code price price % Recommen-
dation
----------------- ------- -------- ------ ---------- ---------
Kazkommertsbank KKGB 254.80 Review
KKGBp 148 Review
Halyk Bank HSBK 227 322 +41.85 Buy
Bank CenterCredit CCBN 337.05 608 +80.39 Buy
Tsesnabank TSBN 903 1,030 +14.06 Neutral
KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 13,450 15,900 +18.22 Buy
Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,081.15 2,440 +17.24 Buy
ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,475 1,900 +28.81 Buy
Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,600 27,500 +56.25 Buy
KZTKp 9,300 8,900 -4.30 Buy
MREK MREK 1,299 1,130 -13.01 Hold
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. IRBIS Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2011-10-11]